English: A schematic showing the regions where natural disasters will occur due to climate change (global warming).

Text version of the map's key

Areas exposed to:

• Pink: hurricanes
• Yellow: desertification or drought
• Blue: small islands and deltas subjected to extreme weather or greater surf; some islands will be completely submerged
• Green: Arctic areas vulnerable to ice and permafrost melting

Background

The schematic was based on the Environmentally Induced Migration map from GRID Arendal. Although that map was deleted by GRID Arendal (see "Environmentally Induced Migration Map - Clarification" on the GRID Arendal site and this SPIEGEL ONLINE article and image caption) due to the fact that the number of refugees was incorrect. The map itself did not show the migration nor refugee estimates; it showed only the areas where natural disasters are likely to occur and hence the map remained accurate.

A reason why the number of refugees wasn't correct (which doesn't affect the validity of the image) is that the degree to which people have been able to adapt in or near their home locale (that is, without crossing borders to officially become a refugee) couldn't be accurately predicted. For example, see "The Coming Storm: The people of Bangladesh have much to teach us about how a crowded planet can best adapt to rising sea levels."

Since the small islands are difficult to see on the map, see this list of island nations which are in danger of being submerged within a few decades at online on the socyberty.com site (or its archive, if the site remains down).