ساعت آخرالزمان

از ویکی‌پدیا، دانشنامهٔ آزاد
ساعت آخرالزمان در آخرین وضعیت خود (۱۰۰ ثانیه به نیمه‌شب)

ساعت آخرالزمان یا ساعت روز قیامت[۱] (به انگلیسی: Doomsday Clock) نمادی است که هرساله احتمال وقوع فجایع جهانی را که زاده عملکرد انسان است، نشان می‌دهد. این ساعت از سال ۱۹۴۷ توسط اعضای بولتن دانشمندان اتمی نگهداری می‌شود و نشان دهنده احتمال وقوع اتفاقاتی چون جنگ هسته‌ای است. این ساعت از سال ۲۰۰۷ تغییرات اقلیمی و تحولات جدید در علوم و فناوری‌هایی را که به دست بشر رخ داده و می‌تواند سبب بروز آسیب‌های جبران‌ناپذیر شود، منعکس می‌کند.

تصمیم‌گیری در مورد حرکت ساعت آخرالزمان از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. اعضای بولتن دانشمندان اتمی هر ساله یک بار در ماه ژوئن و یک بار در ماه نوامبر گرد هم می‌آیند و در مورد این ساعت تصمیم‌گیری می‌کنند. این تصمیم‌گیری با حضور و مشورت گروهی از دانشمندان شامل ۱۵ برنده جایزه نوبل صورت می‌پذیرد.[۲]

ساعت آخرالزمان هرچه به نیمه‌شب نزدیک‌تر باشد، نشان می‌دهد که احتمال وقوع فاجعه‌ای جهانی بیشتر شده‌است.

تغییرات[ویرایش]

به‌دلیل آزمایش بمب هیدروژنی در نوامبر ۱۹۵۲ توسط آمریکا، در سال ۱۹۵۳ (۱۳۳۲) ساعت بر روی دو دقیقه مانده به نیمه شب تنظیم شد که نزدیک‌ترین زمان به پایان دنیا بود. در مقابل، سال ۱۹۹۱ (۱۳۷۰) که جنگ سرد به پایان رسید؛ این ساعت روی ۱۷ دقیقه مانده به نیمه‌شب تنظیم شد.

در نوامبر ۲۰۱۸ (۱۳۹۷) به دلیل تهدیدات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش خطر جنگ هسته‌ای، ساعت آخرالزمان ۳۰ ثانیه جلو کشیده شد و به ۲ دقیقه قبل از نیمه شب رسید.[۳][۴]

خطراتی مانند جنگ هسته‌ای و تغییرات آب و هوایی که دنیا با آن روبه‌رو است باعث شد تا ساعت آخرالزمان در سال ۲۰۱۹ نیز همچنان روی دو دقیقه به نیمه شب باقی بماند.[۵]

نمودار تغییرات ساعت آخرالزمان از سال ۱۹۴۷ تا ۲۰۲۰

تایم‌لاین[ویرایش]

Timeline of the Doomsday Clock[۶]
Year Minutes to midnight Time Change (minutes) Reason
۱۹۴۷ ۷ ۲۳:۵۳ The initial setting of the Doomsday Clock. Doomsday clock (7 minutes).svg
۱۹۴۹ ۳ ۲۳:۵۷ −۴ The Soviet Union tests its first atomic bomb, the RDS-1, officially starting the nuclear arms race. Doomsday clock (3 minutes).svg
۱۹۵۳ ۲ ۲۳:۵۸ −۱ The United States tests its first thermonuclear device in November 1952 as part of Operation Ivy, before the Soviet Union follows suit with the Joe 4 test in August. This remained the clock's closest approach to midnight (tied in 2018) until 2020. Doomsday clock (2 minutes).svg
۱۹۶۰ ۷ ۲۳:۵۳ In response to a perception of increased scientific cooperation and public understanding of the dangers of nuclear weapons (as well as political actions taken to avoid "massive retaliation"), the United States and Soviet Union cooperate and avoid direct confrontation in regional conflicts such as the 1956 Suez Crisis, the 1958 Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, and the 1958 Lebanon crisis. Scientists from various countries help establish the International Geophysical Year, a series of coordinated, worldwide scientific observations between nations allied with both the United States and the Soviet Union, and the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, which allow Soviet and American scientists to interact. Doomsday clock (7 minutes).svg
۱۹۶۳ ۱۲ ۲۳:۴۸ The United States and the Soviet Union sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, limiting atmospheric nuclear testing. Doomsday clock (12 minutes).svg
۱۹۶۸ ۷ ۲۳:۵۳ −۵ The involvement of the United States in the Vietnam War intensifies, the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 takes place, and the Six-Day War occurs in 1967. France and China, two nations which have not signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty, acquire and test nuclear weapons (the 1960 Gerboise Bleue and the 1964 596, respectively) to assert themselves as global players in the nuclear arms race. Doomsday clock (7 minutes).svg
۱۹۶۹ ۱۰ ۲۳:۵۰ Every nation in the world, with the notable exceptions of India, Israel, and Pakistan, signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Doomsday clock (10 minutes).svg
۱۹۷۲ ۱۲ ۲۳:۴۸ The United States and the Soviet Union sign the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Doomsday clock (12 minutes).svg
۱۹۷۴ ۹ ۲۳:۵۱ −۳ India tests a nuclear device (Smiling Buddha), and SALT II talks stall. Both the United States and the Soviet Union modernize multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). Doomsday clock (9 minutes).svg
۱۹۸۰ ۷ ۲۳:۵۳ −۲ Unforeseeable end to deadlock in American–Soviet talks as the Soviet–Afghan War begins. As a result of the war, the U.S. Senate refuses to ratify the SALT II agreement. Doomsday clock (7 minutes).svg
۱۹۸۱ ۴ ۲۳:۵۶ −۳ The Clock is adjusted in early 1981.[۷] The Soviet war in Afghanistan toughens the U.S.' nuclear posture. U.S. President Jimmy Carter withdraws the United States from the 1980 Summer Olympic Games in Moscow. The Carter administration considers ways in which the United States could win a nuclear war. Ronald Reagan becomes President of the United States, scraps further arms reduction talks with the Soviet Union, and argues that the only way to end the Cold War is to win it. Tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union contribute to the danger of nuclear annihilation as they each deploy intermediate-range missiles in Europe. The adjustment also accounts for the Iran hostage crisis, the Iran–Iraq War, China's atmospheric nuclear warhead test, the declaration of martial law in Poland, apartheid in South Africa, and human rights abuses across the world.[۸] Doomsday clock (4 minutes).svg
۱۹۸۴ ۳ ۲۳:۵۷ −۱ Further escalation of the tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, with the ongoing Soviet–Afghan War intensifying the Cold War. U.S. Pershing II medium-range ballistic missile and cruise missiles are deployed in Western Europe.[۷] Ronald Reagan pushes to win the Cold War by intensifying the arms race between the superpowers. The Soviet Union and its allies (except Romania) boycott the 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles, as a response to the U.S-led boycott in 1980. Doomsday clock (3 minutes).svg
۱۹۸۸ ۶ ۲۳:۵۴ In December 1987, the Clock is moved back three minutes as the United States and the Soviet Union sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, to eliminate intermediate-range nuclear missiles, and their relations improve.[۹] Doomsday clock (6 minutes).svg
۱۹۹۰ ۱۰ ۲۳:۵۰ The fall of the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain, along with the reunification of Germany, mean that the Cold War is nearing its end. Doomsday clock (10 minutes).svg
۱۹۹۱ ۱۷ ۲۳:۴۳ The United States and Soviet Union sign the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), and the Soviet Union dissolves on December 26. This is the farthest from midnight the Clock has been since its inception. Doomsday clock (17 minutes).svg
۱۹۹۵ ۱۴ ۲۳:۴۶ −۳ Global military spending continues at Cold War levels amid concerns about post-Soviet nuclear proliferation of weapons and brainpower. Doomsday clock (14 minutes).svg
۱۹۹۸ ۹ ۲۳:۵۱ −۵ Both India (Pokhran-II) and Pakistan (Chagai-I) test nuclear weapons in a tit-for-tat show of aggression; the United States and Russia run into difficulties in further reducing stockpiles. Doomsday clock (9 minutes).svg
۲۰۰۲ ۷ ۲۳:۵۳ −۲ Little progress on global nuclear disarmament. United States rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces its intentions to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, amid concerns about the possibility of a nuclear terrorist attack due to the amount of weapon-grade nuclear materials that are unsecured and unaccounted for worldwide. Doomsday clock (7 minutes).svg
۲۰۰۷ ۵ ۲۳:۵۵ −۲ North Korea tests a nuclear weapon in October 2006,[۱۰] Iran's nuclear ambitions, a renewed American emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia.[۱۱] After assessing the dangers posed to civilization, climate change was added to the prospect of nuclear annihilation as the greatest threats to mankind.[۱۲] Doomsday clock (5 minutes).svg
۲۰۱۰ ۶ ۲۳:۵۴ Worldwide cooperation to reduce nuclear arsenals and limit effect of climate change.[۶] New START agreement is ratified by both the United States and Russia, and more negotiations for further reductions in the American and Russian nuclear arsenal are already planned. The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen results in the developing and industrialized countries agreeing to take responsibility for carbon emissions and to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. Doomsday clock (6 minutes).svg
۲۰۱۲ ۵ ۲۳:۵۵ −۱ Lack of global political action to address global climate change, nuclear weapons stockpiles, the potential for regional nuclear conflict, and nuclear power safety.[۱۳] Doomsday clock (5 minutes).svg
۲۰۱۵ ۳ ۲۳:۵۷ −۲ Concerns amid continued lack of global political action to address global climate change, the modernization of nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia, and the problem of nuclear waste.[۱۴] Doomsday clock (3 minutes).svg
۲۰۱۷ ۲٫۵ ۲۳:۵۷:۳۰ −۰٫۵
(−30 s)
United States President Donald Trump's comments over nuclear weapons, the threat of a renewed arms race between the U.S. and Russia, and the expressed disbelief in the scientific consensus over climate change by the Trump administration.[۱۵][۱۶][۱۷][۱۸][۱۹] This is the first use of a fraction in the time. Doomsday clock (2.5 minutes).svg
۲۰۱۸ ۲ ۲۳:۵۸ −۰٫۵
(−30 s)
The failure of world leaders to deal with looming threats of nuclear war and climate change. This is the clock's second closest approach to midnight, matching that of 1953.[۲۰] In 2019, the Bulletin reaffirmed the "two minutes to midnight" time, citing continuing climate change and Trump administration's abandonment of U.S. efforts to lead the world toward decarbonization; U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; U.S. and Russian nuclear modernization efforts; information warfare threats and other dangers from "disruptive technologies" such as synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and cyberwarfare.[۲۱] Doomsday clock (2 minutes).svg
۲۰۲۰ ۱٫۶۶۶
(100 s)
23:58:20 −۰٫۳۳۳
(−20 s)
Failure of world leaders to deal with the increased threats of nuclear war, such as the end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) between the United States and Russia as well as increased tensions between the US and Iran, along with the continued neglect of climate change. Announced in units of seconds, instead of minutes; this is the clock's closest approach to midnight, exceeding that of 1953 and 2018.[۲۲] The Bulletin concluded by stating that the current issues causing the adjustment are "the most dangerous situation that humanity has ever faced."[۲۳] Doomsday clock (1.67 minutes).svg

منابع[ویرایش]

  1. «ساعت روز قیامت». fa.alalam.ir. دریافت‌شده در ۲۰۱۸-۱۱-۲۷.
  2. «'دو دقیقه به نیمه شب مانده'» (به انگلیسی). BBC News فارسی. ۲۰۱۸. دریافت‌شده در ۲۰۱۸-۱۱-۲۷.
  3. «ساعت آخرالزمان ٣٠ ثانیه جلو کشیده شد؛ دو دقیقه فرصت ماند». euronews. ۲۰۱۸-۰۱-۲۷. دریافت‌شده در ۲۰۱۸-۱۱-۲۷.
  4. «ساعت آخرالزمان تکان خورد». خبرآنلاین. ۲۰۱۸-۰۱-۲۵. دریافت‌شده در ۲۰۱۸-۱۱-۲۷.
  5. «ساعت آخرالزمان روی دو دقیقه به نیمه شب باقی ماند». بی‌بی‌سی فارسی. دریافت‌شده در ۲۵ ژانویه ۲۰۱۹.
  6. ۶٫۰ ۶٫۱ "2021 Doomsday Clock: It is 100 seconds to midnight. Learn why". thebulletin.org.
  7. ۷٫۰ ۷٫۱ "Doomsday Clock at 3'til midnight". The Daily News. December 21, 1983.
  8. Feld, Bernard T. (January 1981). "The hands move closer to midnight". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 37 (1): 1–1. doi:10.1080/00963402.1981.11458799. ISSN 0096-3402.
  9. "Hands of the 'Doomsday Clock' turned back three minutes". The Reading Eagle. December 17, 1987.
  10. "The North Korean nuclear test". The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2009. Archived from the original on June 27, 2009. Retrieved August 4, 2009.
  11. "'Doomsday Clock' Moves Two Minutes Closer To Midnight". The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. January 17, 2007. Retrieved April 6, 2015.
  12. "Nukes, climate push 'Doomsday Clock' forward". NBC News. January 15, 2012. Retrieved January 15, 2012.
  13. "Doomsday Clock moves to five minutes to midnight". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved June 29, 2013.
  14. Casey, Michael (January 22, 2015). "Doomsday Clock moves two minutes closer to midnight". CBS News. Retrieved January 23, 2015.
  15. Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. "It is two and a half minutes to midnight" (PDF). Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved January 26, 2017.
  16. "Board moves the clock ahead". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. January 26, 2017. Retrieved January 26, 2017.
  17. Holley, Peter; Ohlheiser, Abby; Wang, Amy B. "The Doomsday Clock just advanced, 'thanks to Trump': It's now just 2½ minutes to 'midnight. '". Washington Post. Retrieved January 26, 2017.
  18. Bromwich, Jonah Engel (January 26, 2017). "Doomsday Clock Moves Closer to Midnight, Signaling Concern Among Scientists". The New York Times. Retrieved January 26, 2017.
  19. Chappell, Bill. "The Doomsday Clock Is Reset: Closest To Midnight Since The 1950s". NPR.org. Retrieved January 26, 2017.
  20. Bever, Lindsey; Kaplan, Sarah; Ohlheiser, Abby (January 25, 2018). "The Doomsday Clock is now just 2 minutes to 'midnight,' the symbolic hour of the apocalypse". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 28, 2018.
  21. Mecklin, John (January 24, 2019). "A new abnormal: It is still 2 minutes to midnight". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved January 24, 2019.
  22. "Humanity is closer to annihilation than ever before, scientists say". The Independent. January 23, 2020. Retrieved January 23, 2020.
  23. "Current Time". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved 2020-12-07.